NATO’s July summit in Vilnius [What Think Tanks are thinking]

Leaders of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) will meet in Vilnius on 11-12 July against the backdrop of a complex and volatile security environment. Russia’s war on Ukraine, and the latter country’s future membership of the military alliance will dominate the annual summit, according to many public statements. The meeting will aim to send a strong signal of support for Ukraine, reiterating NATO’s open door policy towards the country's membership, increasing military aid, pledging to make the Ukrainian military more interoperable with NATO forces and, possibly, outlining future security guarantees for Kyiv. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is seeking a commitment that his country will join NATO as soon as the war is over, but only some Allies support that request, while others are more cautious. NATO leaders will discuss creating a new NATO-Ukraine Council, which would boost relations between the two, compared with the current NATO-Ukraine commission. NATO will also address strengthening its eastern flank, updating the Alliance’s current plans to defend the region from possible Russian aggression. NATO will also re-examine its Strategic Concept adopted last year in Madrid, discuss security challenges posed by China, and the required increases in the member states’ defence spending. Allies are expected to press Türkiye to drop its opposition to Sweden’s membership of NATO. NATO countries hope to find a replacement for, or prolong the term of, Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg, who is formally due to step down in September. This note gathers links to the recent publications and commentaries from many international think tanks on the NATO summit and related issues. Earlier analyses of Russia’s war on Ukraine can be found in a previous edition of the ‘What Think Tanks are Thinking’ series.